I remember a quotation from the book of Tony Robbins.
It was something like this: “If you let a thousand monkeys make a coin toss, one of them will be much better than all the others”.
The term for the effect is called survivorship bias.
It is one of the most frustrating things I have learned.
And it means that the fact that someone has survived a crisis does not mean that he or she is an expert.
For example, think about your last vacation.
Maybe it was good, maybe it was disappointing.
Most people think that a good experience is caused by the fact that they made wise decisions themselves.
And most people think that a bad experience is caused by other people having made bad decisions.
Most drivers think that their driving skills are above average.
In 30 years of driving experience I have never had a serious problem, but I know that I could not avoid an accident if the driver on the other side of the road did something stupid.
And if you compare 100 traders, one of them will have the best and one of them the worst results.
The only thing that can answer the competence question is: Can he repeat the results on a consistent basis?
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It will work with the original demo accounts of Metatrader 4.
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